Foresee Is a Great Art Especially if It Concerns the Futire
Niels Bohr? Samuel Goldwyn? K. K. Steincke? Robert Storm Petersen? Yogi Berra? Mark Twain? Nostradamus? Anonymous?
Dear Quote Investigator: There is a family of popular humorous sayings nigh the formidable chore of successful prognostication. Hither are v examples:
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- It is difficult to make predictions, especially most the time to come.
- Predictions are hazardous, specially nearly the future.
- It is hard to prophecy, particularly most the future.
- It'due south dangerous to prophesy, particularly virtually the future.
- Never make forecasts, particularly well-nigh the future.
Of course, a prediction is inherently well-nigh the future, and the modifiers "especially" and "particularly" emphasize the comical redundancy of the statement. These expressions take been attributed to a diverse collection of individuals, including Niels Bohr, Sam Goldwyn, Robert Storm Petersen, and Yogi Berra. Would yous please tell me who I should credit?
Quote Investigator: The Danish politician Karl Kristian Steincke authored a multi-volume autobiography, and the earliest testify known to QI appeared in the quaternary volume titled "Farvel Og Tak" ("Bye and Thanks") which was released in 1948. Danish text is followed by an English rendering below. The saying appeared in a section with this title:
Og saa til Slut et Par parlamentariske Sprogblomster
And finally a couple of parliamentary howlers
The saying was spoken during the parliamentary yr 1937-1938, and no attribution was specified. Boldface added to excerpts by QI: [1] 1948, Farvel Og Tak: Minder Og Meninger past Thousand. K. Steincke, (Farvel Og tak: Ogsaa en Tilvaerelse IV (1935-1939)), Quote Page 227, Forlaget Fremad, København. (Publisher Fremad, Copenhagen, Denmark) … Continue reading
Det er vanskeligt at spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden.
It is difficult to brand predictions, specially about the future.
This citation was mentioned in the prominent reference "The Yale Book of Quotations". [2] 2006, The Yale Book of Quotations by Fred R. Shapiro, Section Niels Bohr, Quote Page 92, Yale Academy Printing, New Haven. (Verified on paper) More data about Danish citations for this maxim is presented in the addendum at the end of this article.
The first appearance in English located by QI was printed in a 1956 bookish publication called the "Journal of the Majestic Statistical Society. Series A". This early citation [three] 2012, The Lexicon of Modern Proverbs, Compiled past Charles Clay Doyle, Wolfgang Mieder, and Fred R. Shapiro, Page 206, Yale University Press, New Oasis. (Verified on paper) and several others remarked on the Danish language origin of the aphoristic joke: [4] 1956, Periodical of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (General), "Proceedings of the Coming together", [Speaker: Bradford Hill], Page 147, Volume 119, Number ii, Blackwell Publishing for the … Continue reading
Alas, it is always unsafe to prophesy, particularly, every bit the Danish proverb says, almost the future.
In May 1961 "The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science" printed an instance of the saying using the word "hazardous" instead of "dangerous". Indeed, the phrasing changed over time and was highly variable: [5] 1961 May, The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science / Revue Canadienne d'Economique et de Science politique, Book 27, Number 2, "Canada's Economic Prospects: A … Continue reading
"Prediction," goes an old Danish proverb, "is hazardous, peculiarly about the futurity." For the Canadian economy the gamble is especially bang-up.
Hither are boosted selected citations in chronological order.
In September 1961 a version of the expression was published in "The Journal of Medical Educational activity", and the author of the commodity was identified as the Managing director of Constitute for Experimental Research in Surgery at the Academy of Copenhagen, Kingdom of denmark. The words were credited to an unidentified Danish humorist: [6] 1961 September, The Periodical of Medical Education, Book 36, "Medical Education in Denmark" by H. H. Wandall, Offset Page 1059, Quote Page 1069, Cavalcade 2, Association of American Medical … Continue reading
"Information technology is hard to prophesy, particularly almost the hereafter," equally one of our humorists once expressed himself.
The Leap 1962 effect of the literary mag "The Kenyon Review" printed an instance of the saying: [7] 1962 Bound, The Kenyon Review, Volume 24, Number ii, "Almost in the Family unit: Four. Through Foreign Eyes" past Elsa Gress Wright, First Page 282, Quote Page 300, Published by Kenyon College, … Continue reading
It is hard to prophecy, especially about the hereafter, a Danish witticism goes, and I shall refrain from such rashness…
Likewise in 1962 a Danish geophysical periodical publishing in English printed a version of the mock adage: [8] 1962, Journal Proper name: Geofysiske Publikasjoner: Geophysica Norvegica, Book 24, Special Event: In memory of Vilhelm Bjerknes on the 100th Aniversary of His Nascence, Commodity Championship: "Vilhelm … Continue reading
But, to quote a Danish clown philosopher: "It is difficult to prophesy, especially about the future."
In 1963 the magazine "Computers and Automation" based in Newtonville, Massachusetts printed notwithstanding another variant of the maxim: [9] 1963 December, Computers and Automation, Volume 12, Number 12, Diebold Researchers Undertake Study of EDP Developments, Quote Folio x, Cavalcade i, Published past Berkeley Enterprises, Inc, Newtonville, … Keep reading
"Prediction is difficult, especially when dealing with the future". . .Danish Saying
In 1969 the book "How to Utilize the Calculator in Business organisation Planning" included an instance of the quip without attribution: [10] 1969, How to Use the Computer in Business Planning by Henry F. Lande, Section: The Purpose of This Book, Quote Page nine, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. (Verified on paper)
Let us non forget the old adage, "Forecasting is very difficult, especially about the future."
In 1971 a version of the proverb was attributed to the famous physicist Niels Bohr in the pages of the "Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists". This ascription occurs frequently in modern times: [11] 1971 Dec, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Volume 27, Number x, On the Social Deployment of Scientific discipline by Alan G. Mencher, Page 37, Educational Foundation for Nuclear Science, Inc. (Google Books … Continue reading
We must test all intellectually respectable lines of inquiry, while keeping in mind that, as the bang-up Danish physicist Niels Bohr said, "it is very difficult to predict — peculiarly the future."
In Jan 1973 the proverb was credited to Niels Bohr again in a journal published past the Gild for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) by the mathematician Marker Kac of Rockefeller Academy: [12] 1973 January, SIAM Review, Volume 15, Number 1, Chronicle, Showtime Page 243, Quote Page 256, (Synoptic description of talk entitled "Whither Stochastic Processes?" by Mark Kac of … Continue reading
While (to quote Niels Bohr) "information technology is difficult to predict, especially the future" information technology might be useful (and fun) to selection out some recent developments which might be the forerunner of things to come.
In July 1973 the journal New Scientist printed an instance without attribution: [13] 1973 July 12, New Scientist, Exponential Living by Lord Bowden, (Volume Review of "The Logarithmic Century"), Start Folio 100, Quote Page 100, New Scientific discipline Publications, London. (At present … Keep reading
Information technology is always very difficult to prophesy, particularly about the future, and extrapolation of the prices of mutual stock has ruined many a speculator.
In September 1975 the mathematician Mark Kac employed the quip again. He carefully noted the ascription to Bohr, but he likewise stated that the expression was "an onetime Danish proverb": [fourteen] 1975 September, Advances in Applied Probability, Volume 7, Supplement: Proceedings of the Conference on Directions for Mathematical Statistics, Some Reflections of a Mathematician on the Nature and … Continue reading
A principal purpose of this conference, as I am given to understand, is to try to await into the future of mathematical statistics. At present, in that location is a proverb, attributed to Niels Bohr but plain an old Danish proverb, that it is hard to predict, especially the future.
In 1976 the mathematician Stanislaw Thousand. Ulam writing in his book "Adventures of a Mathematician" credited the aphorism to Niels Bohr: [15] 1976, Adventures of a Mathematician by Stanislaw M. Ulam, Quote Page 286, Charles Scribner'south Sons, New York. (Verified on paper)
As Niels Bohr said in i of his amusing remarks: "It is very hard to predict, especially the future." But I remember mathematics volition greatly change its attribute. Something drastic may evolve, an entirely different point of view on the axiomatic method itself.
In 1979 a book reviewer in the London magazine "The Economist" fastened the expression to the film mogul Sam Goldwyn who was well-known for his humorously incongruous statements: [sixteen] 1979 September 8, The Economist, Department: Books, Kahn and his banzai, (Book review of "World Economic Evolution 1979 and Beyond" and "The Japanese Challenge", Start Page … Proceed reading
This is considering, as Sam Goldwyn once said, it is hard to make forecasts, peculiarly about the futurity.
In 1980 a newspaper in New York reprinted a dissimilar article from "The Economist" that credited Samuel Goldwyn: [17] 1980 Baronial 26, Finger Lake Times Three Options for the Soviets, (Acknowledgement to Economist, London), Quote Page 5, Cavalcade 1, Geneva, New York. (Old Fulton)
Every prognosis hither should be salted with all the familiar cautionary phrases, from Samuel Johnson's snort (when warned in 1770 of Britain's supposed impending ruin) that "at that place is a great deal of ruin in a country", to Samuel Goldwyn's "never prophesy, especially about the hereafter"
In 1984 the popular syndicated gossip columnist Liz Smith ascribed the adage to Goldwyn: [eighteen] 1984 March 12, The Mail service (The Palm Beach Post), Actress Gears Upwards For Decorated Schedule by Liz Smith (Syndicated Cavalcade), Quote Page B2, Column ane, Palm Beach, Florida. (Google News Archive)
"Never brand forecasts, especially about the future," our former friend Sam Goldwyn said.
In 1988 an article in the periodical "The Hastings Center Report" assigned the saying to Nostradamus who was well-known for his prophecies: [19] 1988 December, Journal championship: The Hastings Heart Report, Volume xviii, Number 6, Article title: Precatory Prediction and Mindless Mimicry: The Instance of Mary O'Connor, Author: George J. Annas, … Keep reading
Nostradamus allegedly said, "Prediction is hard, peculiarly well-nigh the futurity."
In 1991 a marketer in the tourism manufacture in Virginia ascribed a variant of the saying to Yogi Berra: [20] 1991 January xx, Richmond Times-Acceleration, Section: Area/State, "Tourist Visits to State Sites Up 0.1% IN 'ninety – Blue Ridge Highlands Region has Biggest Proceeds, 6.ane Pct", … Continue reading
Randall Foskey, director of admissions marketing for Colonial Williamsburg, probably said it all-time last week at the legislative dinner sponsored past the Virginia Hospitality and Travel Association.
"In the words of Yogi Berra, 'I never make predictions, especially about the futurity,'" Foskey said.
In 1998 the book "To Lite Such a Candle: Capacity in the History of Science and Technology" by Keith J. Laidler suggested that Mark Twain used the saying: [21] 1998, Book title: To Light Such a Candle: Capacity in the History of Science and Technology, Writer: Keith J. Laidler, Quote Page three, Publisher: Oxford University Press, Oxford, U.k.. (Questia)
As Marking Twain said, it is difficult to brand predictions, particularly about the future.
In 2000 an article from the RAND Corporation thank tank mentioned ascriptions to Mark Twain and Yogi Berra: [22] 2000, Asian Economical Trends and Their Security Implications by Charles Wolf Jr., Anil Bamezai, Grand. C. Yeh, and Benjamin Zycher, Affiliate Ane, Quote Page 1, Publisher by Rand, Santa Monica, California. … Continue reading
Two familiar quotations are worth citing to clarify the objectives of this analysis. The showtime is President Eisenhower's truistic observation that "the futurity lies before u.s.a."; the second has been variously attributed to Mark Twain and Yogi Berra: "Information technology is dangerous to make forecasts, especially about the time to come."
In decision, electric current evidence indicates that this comical proverb was first expressed in Danish, and the author remains unknown. The get-go written instance at present known was dated 1948.
Niels Bohr died in 1962, and the first published linkage of his proper noun to the expression known to QI appeared in 1971. Fellow scientist Stanislaw M. Ulam who knew and communicated with Bohr credited him in 1976. Thus, there is substantive prove that Bohr employed the maxim in 1962 or before, but the date remains uncertain. Samuel Goldwyn died in 1974, and his first linkage to the saying known to QI was printed in 1979. Maybe he used the expression, but the evidence is very weak, and it is very unlikely he crafted information technology. These dates will probably change as more citations are uncovered.
(Great thanks to top lexicographical researcher Barry Popik for his pioneering piece of work on this topic. Many thanks to Egil Gersov of Åbo Akademis bibliotek for locating the saying in "Farvel Og Tak" and creating scans. Special thanks to Seamus Bradley, Daniel Gackle, and Janos Simon whose inquires motivated QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration. Thank you too to Douglas Thou. Wilson for his assay of the supposed 1918 commendation. Likewise, thanks to Esben Mølgaard for his willingness to help. In addition, thanks to Amory Lovins who told QI that some instances of "Niels" were misspelled as "Neils".)
Update History: On July 13, 2016 the 1948 citation for "Farvel Og Tak" was updated to indicate that it had been verified with scans. Update History: On January 5, 2021 instances of "Neils" were changed to "Niels". Also, some text was rewritten.
Image Notes: The Crystal Brawl circa 1902 by John William Waterhouse. Pictures accessed via Wikimedia Eatables. Pictures are cropped.
ADDENDUM: A kind person (mentioned in the acknowledgement) helped QI verify the 1948 citation. But there exist other potential Danish citations. The metadata and the snippet text presented past Google Books are sometimes inaccurate. Hence, citations must be verified on paper.
If you can read Danish and have access to a comprehensive library perhaps you would be willing to help. The QI email address is on the About folio here. QI would like to obtain scans from these periodicals in lodge to mail service an excerpt and provide additional context to readers.
Hither are 2 relevant matches with metadata and extracted text in Danish from GB and WorldCat. The saying was attributed Storm P (Robert Storm Petersen) in the following:
Periodical Title: LO-Bladet
Yr: 1952 (judge)
Volume: 48
Page: 185 (estimate)
Publisher: [København, Landsorganisationen i Danmark]
Link: here
Nu er det imidlertid, som Tempest-P. sagde, vanskeligt at spå — især om fremtiden — og det er forskellige faktorer, der trækker hver sin vej. Er de faktorer, der bevirker prisfald, stærkere terminate de, der presser priserne op? Den store efterspørgsel …
Title: Byplan
Twelvemonth: 1953 (guess)
Volumes: v-half-dozen
Page 101 (gauge)
Writer: Dansk byplanlaboratorium; Norsk byplanforening.
Publisher: Kbhvn. [i.e. København] : Arkitektens forlag, 1948-
Link: hither
… „Det er vanskeligt at spå, navnlig om fremtiden"? Da den kloge biskop Absalon i ellevehundredhvidkål grundlagde København, var han en meget fremsynet mand, alle datidens byplan teoretikere har sikkert stottet ham i overbevisningen om, …
Source: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/
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